The Strait of Hormuz is functionally paralyzed. Even though the US Navy is technically the most powerful maritime force on the planet, it isn't winning the war of nerves in the Persian Gulf. Iran has successfully turned one of the world's most vital chokepoints into a "no-go" zone for most commercial shipping, and they did it despite a massive air campaign by the US and Israel that started in late February 2026.
The reality is that "freedom of navigation" is a polite legal term that doesn't mean much when an insurance company refuses to cover your $100 million cargo. If you want to know if the US can stop Iran from targeting ships, the answer isn't a simple yes or no. It's a "yes" on the tactical map and a "no" in the global economy.
The math of maritime deterrence
In the first two weeks of March 2026, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claims they've hit over 15,000 targets. They've reportedly destroyed 90% of Iran’s ballistic missile capacity and 95% of its drone launchers. By all traditional military metrics, Iran’s navy is basically gone—US Central Command says over 60 Iranian ships were taken out in the first ten days.
But here’s the problem. It only takes one "rogue" drone or one hidden cruise missile to sink a tanker. Iran’s strategy doesn't rely on winning a ship-to-ship battle with a US destroyer. It relies on making the risk of transit too high for a CEO in London or Singapore to stomach.
The Strait is only about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. The actual shipping lanes are even tighter—two miles wide for inbound and two miles for outbound traffic. You’re basically driving a slow-moving, flammable building through a shooting gallery. Iran has hundreds of miles of rugged coastline where they can hide mobile launchers. Even if the US hits 95% of them, that remaining 5% is enough to keep oil prices at $100 a barrel.
Why the US Navy is struggling to protect commerce
The US military is built for high-end conflict, not for being a global security guard for thousands of private tankers. President Trump has called for a coalition to escort ships, but the response from allies has been chilly. Countries like the UAE have temporarily closed their airspace, and many European partners are hesitant to get sucked into a full-scale war.
There are three main reasons why a massive naval presence isn't solving the crisis:
- The Insurance Barrier: This is the big one. On March 5, major insurers like Gard and Skuld canceled war-risk coverage for the region. Without insurance, ships don't move. A US destroyer can shoot down a missile, but it can't sign a policy.
- Asymmetric Tactics: Iran is using "dark vessels" and GPS spoofing. Ships are turning off their transponders to avoid being targeted, which actually makes it harder for the US Navy to track and protect them. It's a chaotic mess where nobody knows who's who.
- The Mine Threat: Even the rumor of sea mines is enough to halt traffic. While the US claims to have destroyed Iranian mine-laying boats, the fear that a few "dumb" mines are floating in the channel forces every ship to move at a snail's pace, if they move at all.
The Chinese Exception
Interestingly, Iran is being selective. They’ve signaled that Chinese-linked ships are safe to pass. This has led to a bizarre situation where Liberian or Panamanian flagged ships are broadcasting "CHINA OWNER" on their AIS signals just to get through. It’s a clear attempt by Tehran to drive a wedge between the US and its biggest global rival.
Can the US actually stop the attacks
Technically, the US can "win" any engagement. But stopping every single attack is a different story. To truly secure the passage, the US would have to occupy the entire Iranian coastline or permanently destroy every mobile launcher in the country. That’s not a "limited strike"—that's a massive, multi-year war.
Currently, the US is focusing on "pulsed operations." They wait for Iran to show its hand, then strike the launch site. It’s a reactive game. Meanwhile, Iran is moving into "desperation mode," as the Joint Chiefs have called it, which often makes an adversary more unpredictable and dangerous.
What happens next for global shipping
If you're looking for a quick return to normal, don't hold your breath. The Strait of Hormuz isn't going to be "as it was before," according to the speaker of Iran's parliament. We're looking at a long-term shift in how energy moves.
- Rerouting is the new normal: Expect more ships to take the long way around Africa, adding weeks to transit times and massive costs to fuel.
- Shadow Fleets will grow: Iran’s "ghost fleet" of tankers is still moving oil to China. This illicit trade is harder to stop than legal commerce because these ships already operate outside the law.
- Pressure on the US to escalate: If the "de facto" closure of the Strait lasts for more than a month, the economic pressure on Washington to move from "deterrence" to "total destruction of infrastructure" will become nearly unbearable.
The US Navy has the hardware to win the fight, but it doesn't have a way to force the world's merchant fleet to feel safe. Until the land-based threat from Iran is totally neutralized—which would require an escalation nobody wants—the Strait of Hormuz remains a ghost town.
If you're managing a supply chain, stop waiting for the "all clear." Audit your exposure to Gulf transit now and start securing alternative freight capacity before the rest of the market catches on. The pain from these anchored tankers usually hits the shelves about four weeks after the initial disruption. We're right on the edge of that window.
