The NHL just dropped the names for the 2026 Hart Memorial Trophy finalists, and honestly, it’s like looking at a mirror from two years ago. We’ve got Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nikita Kucherov back in the final three. It’s the same trio we saw in 2024, but the stakes feel completely different this time around. This isn't just about who had the flashiest highlight reel. It’s a debate about what "value" actually means in a league where scoring 130 points has somehow become the baseline for elite status.
If you’re looking for a clear-cut winner, you’re going to be disappointed. There’s no consensus here. We have the best player in the world, the guy who broke the even-strength scoring record, and the winger who basically carried an entire franchise on his back through the winter.
Connor McDavid is chasing history in Edmonton
McDavid isn't just playing against the rest of the league anymore; he’s playing against the ghosts of hockey past. By putting up 138 points and a league-leading 90 assists, he grabbed his sixth Art Ross Trophy. That’s legendary stuff. But the real story is that he’s now one step away from joining the most exclusive club in hockey.
If McDavid wins this June, it’ll be his fourth Hart. Only three players have ever done that: Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, and Eddie Shore. Think about that. He’s 29 years old and already knocking on the door of the Mount Rushmore of hockey. The argument for McDavid is simple. He is the engine. When he’s on the ice, the Oilers are a different species. He led the league in scoring by a decent margin, and even though the Oilers had a rough first-round exit against the Ducks, that doesn't matter for this award. The Hart is a regular-season trophy, and in the regular season, McDavid was once again the gold standard.
Nathan MacKinnon and the art of the even strength goal
While McDavid owns the assist column, Nathan MacKinnon spent the 2025-26 season turning even-strength play into a personal playground. MacKinnon finished with 53 goals—a career high—and took home the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy. But the stat that should make your jaw drop is 97 even-strength points.
That is the highest total we’ve seen since Jaromir Jagr was tearing things up in 1995-96. MacKinnon didn’t rely on a power play to inflate his numbers. He did it while the game was at its hardest. He drove the Colorado Avalanche to a 121-point season and a Presidents’ Trophy. When people talk about "value to his team," it’s hard to bet against the guy who led the best regular-season team in the NHL while dominating 5-on-5 play. He won it in 2024, and there's a huge contingency of voters who think he was even better this year.
Nikita Kucherov is the Lightning’s life support
Then there’s Nikita Kucherov. If you want to talk about "most valuable to his team" in the literal sense, Kucherov might actually have the strongest case. He finished with 130 points in only 76 games. That’s a 1.71 points-per-game pace, which actually topped the league.
The Tampa Bay Lightning weren't the powerhouse they used to be this year. They struggled with depth and consistency, but Kucherov was the constant. He led his team in goals, assists, and points by a massive margin. Without him, Tampa probably isn't even a playoff team. He’s a former winner (2019) and was a finalist last year too. While he might not have the "best player" narrative like McDavid or the "team success" narrative like MacKinnon, his raw efficiency was arguably the best in the NHL this season.
Comparing the Finalists at a Glance
McDavid played 82 games, scoring 48 goals and 90 assists for 138 points. He’s the favorite for a reason. He’s the most complete offensive weapon we’ve seen in decades.
Kucherov played 76 games, scoring 44 goals and 86 assists for 130 points. His points-per-game average is the highest of the group, which usually catches the eye of the analytics-heavy voters.
MacKinnon played 80 games, scoring 53 goals and 74 assists for 127 points. He’s the only 50-goal scorer in the group and the driving force behind the league's top-seeded team.
Who actually takes it home
Voters from the Professional Hockey Writers Association have a nightmare on their hands. Do you reward the scoring champion (McDavid), the goal-scoring leader on the best team (MacKinnon), or the guy with the best per-game production (Kucherov)?
Early betting markets and prediction models are leaning toward McDavid. He has about a 53% chance of winning according to recent data. Kucherov is sitting around 37%, and MacKinnon is the dark horse at 12%. It feels a bit disrespectful to MacKinnon given the season he had, but that’s just how deep the talent pool is right now.
We’ve moved past the era where 100 points was a guaranteed MVP. Now, you need to be pushing 140 or carrying a roster on your back just to get an invite to the ceremony. Whoever wins, it’s clear we’re living through a golden age of individual talent.
Keep an eye on the NHL Awards in June. If McDavid wins, start the "Greatest of All Time" debates, because he's entering territory where only the legends live. If you’re a betting person, McDavid is the safe play, but Kucherov’s points-per-game might just pull off the upset if the voters prioritize efficiency over the raw totals.
